Republicans Quietly Misplace Confidence in Donald Trump as Approval Slides to 37%

One year into his second term, President Donald Trump’s approval rating has gently drifted downward to 37%, a number that political strategists describe as “technically above zero.”

According to a new Pew Research Center survey of 8,512 U.S. adults conducted January 20–26, public opinion continues to lean negative — and, more awkwardly, the shift is happening inside Trump’s own party.

By more than two-to-one, Americans say the administration’s actions have been worse than expected (50%) rather than better (21%). Only 27% now say they support all or most of Trump’s policies, down from 35% when he returned to office.

And here’s the twist: that decline comes entirely among Republicans.

Yes. The base appears to have misplaced a few percentage points.

Leadership Skills: Rated “Somewhat”

Across six key presidential traits, more Americans say they have little or no confidence in Trump than express strong confidence.

Only 34% say they are extremely or very confident in his leadership skills, while 51% say they are not too or not at all confident. Another 14% hover politely in the “somewhat” category — the political equivalent of a hesitant shrug.

Confidence in Trump’s mental fitness (52% not confident) and physical fitness (50% not confident) now tilts negative as well. Roughly three-in-ten Americans say they are confident in those areas.

The numbers grow frostier from there.

Just 25% express strong confidence that he respects democratic values, and the same share believe he picks good advisers.

Ethics? Even harsher.

Only 21% say they are extremely or very confident that Trump acts ethically in office, while 60% express little or no confidence.

That figure was already low last year. It has now dropped eight more points — and again, the slide is coming mostly from Republicans.

The Republican Drift

At the start of Trump’s second term, 55% of Republicans said they were confident he acts ethically. That number now stands at 42%.

Similarly, confidence among Republicans that Trump respects democratic values has slipped from 60% to 52%.

Even on mental fitness — traditionally a stronghold of partisan loyalty — Republican confidence fell from roughly three-quarters last year to 66% today.

Democrats, for context, remain consistently unconvinced.

Expectations vs. Reality

The broader takeaway is less dramatic than apocalyptic. Trump’s approval rating has not collapsed; it has simply continued its familiar pattern: more negative than positive, slightly trending downward.

But what makes this moment notable is where the erosion is occurring.

Not among Democrats.

Not among independents.

But within Republican ranks.

The same voters who delivered him back to office are now trimming their enthusiasm by small but measurable margins.

Approval: 37%.

Full policy support: 27%.

Ethics confidence: 21%.

Expectation gap: widening.

The political machine continues to operate. The rallies continue. The messaging remains maximalist.

But in the quiet arithmetic of polling data, something subtle is happening.

Confidence isn’t collapsing.

It’s thinning.

And thinning, in politics, is sometimes louder than outrage.